Oil price trend discussion, Baidu Financial News

Sino-Singapore Jingwei news on August 9th, at 24:00 today (9th), a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Institutions generally predict that this round of domestic oil prices is likely to usher in a "four consecutive declines", which is also the fifth time this year.

 

 

Source: Sino-Singapore Jingwei (the same below)

 

In this round of pricing cycle, the overall international oil price showed a trend of first strong and then weak. On August 5, local time, light sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $89.01 per barrel, down 9.74% from July 28; London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $89.01 per barrel. A barrel was $94.92, down 8.70% from July 29.

 

In terms of news, on August 3, local time, OPEC+ announced an increase of 100,000 barrels of oil per day in September. Reuters reported that this would be the smallest increase since OPEC introduced the quota system in 1982, equivalent to just 86 seconds of global demand. In addition, limited spare capacity needs to be used very carefully in response to severe supply disruptions, OPEC+ said in a statement when it next meets on Sept. 5.

 

In terms of inventories, on August 3, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that EIA crude oil inventories increased by 4.467 million barrels in the week ended July 29, compared with an expected decrease of 629,000 barrels.

 

Regarding the changes in crude oil prices, Hu Xue, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that the international crude oil remained strong in the early stage under the influence of the decline in inventories and the negative production increase of OPEC+, but after entering August, due to the economic downturn, lower demand for fuel oil, and crude oil gasoline inventories Affected by the negative factors such as the rise and the counterattack of the Asian epidemic, international oil prices began to fluctuate and fall.

 

Xu Na, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, pointed out that since this round of pricing cycle, the bottom of international oil prices has continued to move downward, the rate of change of crude oil has turned from positive to negative, and has continued to deepen within the negative value, and price adjustments have changed from stranded to downward. 

 

According to the data monitoring model of Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of trading on August 5, the 9th working day in China, the reference crude oil change rate was -1.62%, and gasoline and diesel are expected to be reduced by 80 yuan/ton. Calculated by liter, the 92# gasoline will be reduced by 0.06 yuan, and the 95# gasoline and 0# diesel will be reduced by 0.07 yuan respectively.

 

Zhongyu Information data shows that as of August 8, on the 9th working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil was valued at US$99.89 per barrel, the crude oil change was -1.34 US dollars per barrel or -1.45%, and gasoline and diesel were correspondingly reduced by 120 yuan. /Ton.

 

According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the 9th working day on August 8, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 99.38 US dollars / barrel, the rate of change was -1.64%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 110 yuan / ton.

 

Based on the minimum forecast value of the above three institutions and a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will cost 3 yuan less to fill a tank of No. 92 gasoline. In addition to the previous three accumulative reductions of 38.5 yuan, a full box will cost a total of 41.5 yuan less.

 

 

According to statistics from China-Singapore Jingwei, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 14 rounds of adjustments in 2022. Gasoline prices increased by a total of 1740 yuan / ton, diesel prices increased by a total of 1675 yuan / ton, showing a pattern of "ten rises, four drops and zero stranded". 

 

If this price reduction is implemented, the price adjustment of refined oil products in 2022 will show a pattern of "ten rises, five falls and zero stranded", and it will become the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019. Prior to this, the price adjustment of refined oil products ended in "five consecutive declines" in 2018.

 

According to the principle of "ten working days", the next round of price adjustment window is 24:00 on August 23.

 

The Ping An Futures report pointed out that although the increase in OPEC+ production was significantly smaller than expected, the manufacturing index of the world's major economies fell, which was negative for crude oil consumption. 

 

The decline in crude oil consumption will weigh on oil prices. U.S. crude oil inventories rebounded last week, while U.S. gasoline inventories have continued to rise since reaching the inventory low on June 10, indicating that the terminal demand is weak. The current U.S. gasoline crack spread has fallen, driving the decline in the operating rate of U.S. refineries, which is unfavorable for crude oil consumption.