Xau/usd gold forecast: gold prices staged a Jedi rebound, gold bulls and the momentum of gold prices need to pay attention to this important technology

Xau/usd gold bear market rebound will not last long; The one month downward trend channel of gold price remains intact.

Gold fell to a new low of $1787 / oz on Monday and returned to around $1828 / oz, but it seems that it will be difficult for gold prices to rise.

The New York Fed Manufacturing index released yesterday was -11.6, far lower than expected, compared with 17. Gold was also boosted by a slight decline in US Treasury yields (yields).

The dollar also fell at the beginning of this week, but the lack of faith in these trends and any real follow-up seem to indicate a delay rather than a reversal of the trend.

Later today (02:00 am EST), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech, and the market must pay attention to his remarks as always.

The gold daily chart highlights the main trends and selling in the past month. The bearish "inverted hammer line" candle pattern that appeared on April 18 and another one on May 5 continued to pose downward pressure on gold.

Any recent bear market rebound has been sold off, and the bearish channel since early April still exists. If the channel is effectively broken, the next resistance level will focus on the vicinity of $1858 / oz. Even 50% Fibonacci retreated to $1871 / ounce.

If the current bear market rebound fails, then yesterday's low of $1787 / ounce will play a role again.

According to the data of retail traders, 85.24% of retail traders are net long, and the long short ratio of retail traders is 5.78 to 1. The number of net long positions of retail traders decreased by 1.05% from yesterday and 2.72% from last week, while the number of net short positions of retail traders increased by 11.65% from yesterday and decreased by 9.86% from last week.

We usually take a negative view of the sentiment of retail traders. The fact that retail traders are net long suggests that gold prices may continue to fall. Net long positions are less than yesterday, but more than last week. The current sentiment of retail traders and the recent changes in gold prices have further biased our gold trading towards mixed emotions.