Oil prices "three consecutive declines" may end, foreign exchange MT4.MT5 trend

Since the beginning of this year, the price of domestic refined oil has been rising almost all the time, except that it was lowered once in April, which made many car owners desperate, and the oil price of all varieties has entered the era of 9 yuan. Fortunately, since the end of June, it has finally ushered in three consecutive declines, and the confidence of car owners has gradually returned.

 

At 24:00 on August 9, a new round of refined oil price adjustment cycle will come. Will it continue the downward trend? Today is the 5th working day for adjustment. Judging from the changes in international oil prices, it is not very optimistic. It is very likely that the three consecutive declines will end, and the rise will usher in again.

 

Oil prices continue to rise on August 2

Domestic refined oil prices are affected by changes in international oil prices. After all, most of the oil is imported, so it is generally based on the changes in international oil prices within 10 working days.

 

August 2 is the fifth working day of the new round of oil price adjustment. In the first four working days, international oil prices rose most of the time, but they fell sharply yesterday. WTI crude oil fell 4.80% to $93.89 a barrel, the biggest drop in nearly three weeks, while Brent crude fell 3.79% to $100.03 a barrel.

 

A single-day decline will not affect the overall rally, and ultimately depends on the rate of change in crude oil. By August 1, the rate of change in crude oil rose from 0.08% to 2.44%, maintaining a positive growth. There are still 5 working days left, unless international oil prices continue to fall, it is likely to end the downward trend.

 

As for the forecast on August 2, the estimated increase in domestic refined oil prices is 120 yuan / ton, and the estimated increase in gas stations is 0.11 yuan / liter, which is still an upward trend.

At present, the national average price of 92 gasoline per liter is about 8.5 yuan, and the average price of 95 gasoline per liter is about 9.1 yuan. Even at the current increase, the intensity is not very large, and a tank of fuel costs about 5.5 yuan more.

 

However, whether it will rise or fall will ultimately depend on the adjustment at 24:00 on August 9.

 

Why are oil prices likely to rise?

In fact, there are many negative factors in international oil prices, the most important one being that the demand side has begun to weaken, because the global manufacturing data is not ideal.

 

Data showed that Japan's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 52.1 in July, the lowest since September last year. The final value in the United States was 52.2 and the final value in the euro zone was 49.8. As the world's largest manufacturing country, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in July was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

 

Manufacturing is a major energy-demanding industry. Once this industry begins to weaken, the demand for oil will fall, and it will be difficult for international oil prices to remain high.

 

However, there seems to be more good news, with the market's worries about a supply-side shortage outweighing concerns about a slump in demand. Why is there a shortage?

 

First of all, Russia has stopped supplying gas to 6 European countries. In addition to the maintenance of Nord Stream-1, the supply of natural gas will decrease, which may lead to price increases, thereby driving up energy prices. Many people worry that the demand for crude oil substitution will increase.

 

 

Secondly, the OPEC+ meeting is likely to keep production unchanged in September, which means that there will be no significant changes in the market supply, and it may be difficult for prices to fall back.

 

In addition, the inventory of EIA is constantly decreasing. The total inventory of crude oil, gasoline and refined oil has decreased by 8.611 million barrels.

 

In addition, oil is still a financial product, which is greatly affected by the adjustment of U.S. financial policy. Last month, the U.S. raised interest rates by 75 basis points, which was originally negative. Oil prices are likely to continue rising.

 

It is difficult to return to the era of 7 yuan

Although it has finally fallen for three consecutive times and the price has dropped, there is still a lot of gap compared to the previous 7 yuan era. So for the rest of the year, is it possible to return to the 7 yuan era?

 

Honestly, that's very unlikely. Some experts predict that the trading price of Brent crude oil will remain between $100-120 per barrel for the rest of the year. At such a price, it is difficult for domestic oil prices to continue to fall, and even fall back to the era of 7 yuan.

 

However, let’s take a look at the new round of oil price adjustment on August 9. From the current point of view, it is very likely to rise.