A stronger dollar? Bad pound? Tiante will give you a comprehensive grasp of mt4 MT5 foreign exchange information

On the morning of June 9, Beijing time (Thursday), the US dollar index was traded near 102.55. The US dollar index rose on Wednesday, reversing the earlier decline, as the decline in the US stock market boosted the dollar's risk aversion appeal, while the euro strengthened before the European Central Bank announced its policy, and the market expected the European Central Bank to raise interest rates on Thursday. The position of British Prime Minister Johnson is still facing challenges. He also plans to overturn part of the brexit agreement, which may lead to domestic and European Union opposition, and may become a potential negative for the pound.

On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to rise against the yen, rising 1.23% to 134.225. The exchange rate rose slightly after the opening of the Asian market on Thursday, once breaking the highest level since February 27, 2002 to 134.522. The euro continued to rise against the yen on Wednesday, hitting the highest level of 144.242 since January 5, 2015, and finally closed up 1.22 at 143.634. At present, the euro has risen against the yen for 10 consecutive trading days, which is the longest consecutive rise in eight months.

However, Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller global family office, said that the strong US dollar was detrimental to the market, and he believed that there would be some turbulence in the future.

The Bank of Japan is still one of the few central banks in the world that maintain a dove stance, while other central banks have adopted a tightening policy of raising interest rates to combat inflation. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan insisted on its support for the weakening of the yen, saying it was good for the economy. Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan would maintain monetary easing with a view to achieving stable and sustainable 2% inflation. Technical strategists believe that the dollar is further entering the overbought area against the yen. James Reilly of Kaitou macro said that the continuous policy differences mean that the US dollar will rise further against the yen.

On Wednesday, the euro retreated from the gains made earlier due to better than expected economic data in the euro zone, and finally closed up 0.14% to 1.0715. The market focus remains entirely on the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday and whether policymakers respond to market expectations for more aggressive tightening policies. The European Central Bank is expected to take a hawkish position on Thursday and start raising interest rates in July. The market digested the expectation of raising interest rates by 75 basis points before September.

Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, said that euro bulls want to see the European central bank raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but may only raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The expectation is that the level of global bond yields, especially in Europe as a whole, may have more room to rise. Ultimately, the market will be locked in the information released by European Central Bank President Lagarde at the press conference.

After the European Central Bank issued its policy decision, investors will understand the inflation situation in the United States through the CPI of the United States in May. The market expects the US CPI to grow at an annual rate of 8.3% without quarterly adjustment in May, unchanged from April. The United States will release its CPI data for may at 20:30 on June 10, Beijing time.

Sterling fell 0.6% to 1.2512 against the US dollar on Wednesday, and finally closed down 0.44% to 1.2534. On Monday, British Prime Minister Johnson encountered a vote of no confidence. Although he narrowly won in the end, some analysts said that his position as prime minister was still facing challenges. British political risks and concerns about the economic slowdown have put pressure on the pound. Three people familiar with the matter said that Johnson planned to promote legislation to give him the right to overturn part of the brexit agreement. This move may irritate some party members and the European Union, which is a potential negative for the pound.

Important data and events on June 9

In terms of major events, on June 9, investors need to focus on the interest rate resolution of the European Central Bank, the monetary policy press conference of President Lagarde, and the speech of governor mcclem of the Bank of Canada.

Summary of institutional views

Netherlands international bank looks forward to the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates: the European Central Bank may ease the fluctuation of treasury bond interest rate spread

In a report, the interest rate strategist of the Netherlands international group said that the "mild words" of the European Central Bank at the monetary policy meeting on Thursday would alleviate the fluctuation of treasury bond spreads to a certain extent, but said they doubted whether these words were enough to persuade private investors to return to the peripheral bond market of the euro zone in large numbers.

Once the ECB's net asset purchase program (expected to stop this month) stops, the demand gap will have to be filled by private sector investors. This is not impossible, but the best way to persuade them to do so is to reduce the risk associated with peripheral country bonds or provide higher yields. It is expected that this burden will fall on the shoulders of the European Central Bank in the near future

Jeffrey looks forward to the European Central Bank's interest rate resolution: the European Central Bank's June meeting is crucial, but it is not expected to raise interest rates

Mohit Kumar, chief economist of Jeffery, said that the European Central Bank's meeting on Thursday will formulate the policy path expected by the market, and at present, the European Central Bank's management committee has differences on how to promote the policy. The most noteworthy is the words and tone of interest rate hikes in July and September.

Most likely, the European Central Bank announced that it would start raising interest rates in July, and the deposit rate would rise to zero in the third quarter. The doves' approach is to show that the interest rate will rise to zero by the end of 2023, because this will rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points. It is expected that Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, may neither close the door to raising interest rates by 50 basis points nor explicitly support raising interest rates by 50 basis points

Analysts at ABN AMRO: the US dollar is expected to remain strong before the Federal Reserve meeting next week

The US dollar should remain in the 102-103 range before the Fed's policy meeting next week. The volatility of the U.S. stock market last month raised doubts about whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates to 3.25%, but the recent stability of the stock market and encouraging U.S. economic data support the view that the Federal Reserve is still fully tightening policy.

At its meeting next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release a dot matrix chart of its interest rate forecast, which should support the expectation that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate will reach 3% in 2023. So the dollar will remain strong before the Federal Reserve meeting next week

Financial website dailyfx analyst Justin: the US dollar will test the 135 level against the yen

Under the continuous influence of the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, the yen suffered a new round of selling. At the same time, the strengthening of oil prices has also exacerbated the negative outlook for the yen, and the risk of the continued rise of the US dollar against the yen remains, especially considering the Bank of Japan's adherence to the dove policy. With the US bond yield standing at 3%, the US dollar will continue to strengthen against the yen, and the possibility of testing the 135 level has greatly increased.