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AUD / USD Outlook: hawkish RBA challenges the US dollar! These technical levels deserve attention

HOME >News 2022-08-13 | VIEW：626

The Bank of Australia announced in its monetary policy statement that the exercise price of Australian dollar / US dollar expiration options may provide investors with some hints; Ig customer sentiment index shows that the outlook for AUD / USD is still unclear.

Australian dollar fundamentals outlook

The Bank of Australia released a monetary policy statement. The following are the key issues:

1. Inflation expectations have been raised, and it is expected that inflation will remain above 2%-3%.

2. There is no need to worry about the weakness of the Australian dollar. The current trading of the Australian dollar is near the similar level in early 2022 and before the epidemic.

3. The labor market is tight and the unemployment rate is low.

4. Need to raise interest rates to curb inflationary pressure

5. Reduction of China's economic growth expectations

Considering the above points, the Australian dollar has received great upward support; If China's economic growth recovers, aud / USD may lead the rise in the future.

Few currencies have shown strong resilience relative to the US dollar, and few have a solid economic foundation lower than the radical interest rate hike.

The plans for the following options to expire today focus on exercising at 0.7200 and 0.7300 respectively. This may strengthen the Australian dollar; As the maturity date approaches,

The market tends to move towards a higher level of exercise price (this is the so-called rule of thumb).

AUD / USD technical analysis

The daily chart of AUD / USD above shows that short sellers have tried to test the psychological support area of 0.7000 for the third time since December 2021. Considering the buying of US dollars and China's economic growth is unlikely to recover quickly,

In the short term, this is really possible. The author will look for confirmation of breaking through 0.7183 (61.8% Fibo level) in order to confirm the recovery of action energy. If the exchange rate is close to the resistance level of 0.7183, this may be a good position for bears to re-enter.

Key resistance:

• 200 day SMA line (gray line)

•0.7183

Key support:

•0.7000

 

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