Dollar Essentials:
• US dollar fundamentals Outlook: bullish
• focus this week on the inflation report and the French election
The short-term outlook for the US dollar is still bullish, as interest rate differentials continue to move in favor of the US dollar;
In addition, weaker risk assets may also support the dollar, which is expected to support the dollar to break through the 100 mark.
The latest minutes of the Fed meeting provide details of the quantitative tightening policy announced at the May meeting.
However, brennard of the Federal Reserve stole most of the limelight. He stressed that the Federal Reserve is an institution to fight inflation,
In terms of tightening policies, it is expected to exceed the commitments. Therefore, the dollar is likely to continue to maintain its dominant position before the meeting in May, and this advantage will be more obvious as commodity currencies have begun to fall.
Looking forward to this week, the United States will usher in the latest round of inflation data. Considering that the direction of monetary policy is almost clear at a glance,
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the same time as QT (Quantitative tightening) at its May meeting. Therefore, this week's economic data is unlikely to have a significant impact on the short-term policy outlook, and the volatility of the US dollar may also decline, unless there is a significant deviation from expectations.
The market focus this week may be the French election. Given that the gap between macron and Le Pen in the polls is gradually narrowing,
Greater attention may be focused on the consequences of the first round of elections in France. Macron once had a sure shot,
But now it seems that this may disappoint him. If Le Pen performed better in the first round than the current polls show,
It is expected that the euro will face pressure in the second round of general election, and it is expected that the euro / dollar may fall to 1.07 at that time.
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